Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.322520 1.402142 1.485208 1.578544 1.680754 1.789567 1.914544
2026-01-18 1.200516 1.312606 1.435029 1.579485 1.746349 1.934355 2.164078
2026-01-25 1.137669 1.271152 1.421783 1.606007 1.827538 2.088380 2.423375
2026-02-01 1.059692 1.202516 1.367535 1.574747 1.831566 2.144381 2.562266
2026-02-08 0.989462 1.136578 1.309757 1.531870 1.814035 2.167551 2.655899
2026-02-15 0.943841 1.096435 1.279206 1.518339 1.829363 2.229849 2.801749
2026-02-22 0.911518 1.070054 1.263058 1.520402 1.862791 2.315625 2.984058
2026-03-01 0.871274 1.031408 1.228919 1.496342 1.858821 2.349027 3.093233
2026-03-08 0.827445 0.986090 1.183822 1.454883 1.827914 2.341764 3.140463
2026-03-15 0.799951 0.960276 1.162394 1.443275 1.836393 2.389227 3.271925
2026-03-22 0.788670 0.954655 1.166679 1.466034 1.893388 2.509349 3.525388
2026-03-29 0.769766 0.938151 1.155580 1.466629 1.918117 2.582616 3.710036
2026-04-05 0.756762 0.929627 1.155668 1.484070 1.970234 2.704001 3.992662
2026-04-12 0.738239 0.913047 1.144122 1.484373 1.996878 2.787927 4.221420
2026-04-19 0.729311 0.908908 1.149238 1.508560 2.060679 2.935443 4.580894
2026-04-26 0.703432 0.880653 1.119549 1.480034 2.040698 2.943431 4.681712
2026-05-03 0.675645 0.848901 1.083806 1.440868 2.001611 2.916254 4.711386
2026-05-10 0.658012 0.830648 1.066503 1.428498 2.004371 2.960216 4.885620
2026-05-17 0.645832 0.819565 1.058950 1.430385 2.029989 3.045322 5.153460
2026-05-24 0.627078 0.798671 1.036514 1.408380 2.014906 3.056680 5.267595
2026-05-31 0.604488 0.771777 1.004578 1.370429 1.971316 3.013443 5.258645
2026-06-07 0.590969 0.757418 0.990506 1.359795 1.973100 3.053410 5.438429
2026-06-14 0.587113 0.756698 0.996365 1.380640 2.029426 3.199154 5.879688